ICE macroeconomic policy is not optimistic about the next year's cotton prices

From the market feedback point of view, affected by further economic stimulus measures launched by China and the US, US soybeans and corn continue to rise sharply due to dry weather, and the European debt crisis seems to be effectively diluted, ICE cotton bulls continue to enter the market to increase prices, the main contract to The 75-cent mark is close; while the domestic and international markets are basically flat, the expectations at the policy level are very variable, and the bottoms of ICE, Zhengmian, and electronic coupling gradually increase.

Some cotton companies believe that the rebound in this round of cotton has gone very solidly at every step. Therefore, under the conditions of tight resources, speculative forces, loose market rescue measures, and China's internal expansion, the United States has promoted multiple droughts. The space for the decline of ICE** has basically been sealed or not, unless the European debt crisis is once again due to the inability of Italy and Spain to implement austerity policies to spread again, the US QE3 again “flying a kite” and the Chinese economy cannot achieve a “soft landing”. It is only possible for the cotton price to open up again. By then, the main ICE will only break 70 cents or even close to 65 cents, while the domestic Zheng cotton CF1301 contract will return to 19,200 yuan / ton or even 18,800 yuan / ton.

It is understood that the current sliding import tax quota is becoming more and more tight, but due to the very limited quantity, the pattern of “more glutinous rice and less porridge” makes cotton spinning mills and traders with import quotas in a “strong” position, with a certain number of places in Jiangsu, Shandong and Henan. The small and medium-sized cotton spinning mills, weaving mills, and traders could not use low-priced outer cotton because they could not get import quotas, coupled with the tight cash flow caused by gauze stocks, they had to deal with them by cutting production or stopping production. It is worth noting that some large and medium-sized enterprises in China recently started selling foreign cotton or Xinjiang cotton to foreign customers. The funds were withdrawn in advance, while spinning or weaving increased the use of alternatives such as chemical fiber and real estate cotton. Some large foreign companies stated that although domestic and foreign cotton spreads remain at 3,000-4,000 yuan/ton, only a few large and medium-sized cotton spinning mills and state-owned traders inquire about US cotton, Australian cotton, and Indian cotton in the far-month shipping period. Cotton companies or importers do not care about shipping cotton and are not sensitive to quotations. The main reason is that considering that the number of reserved cotton is huge, most companies think that in 2013, there was a big reduction in hopes of 1% tariffs and additional quotas for sliding quotas. Once import quotas cannot be obtained or the transfer price of quotas is too high, the pressure on importers will be very great.

On July 17th, the Qingdao Port S-6 cotton quotations were not quoted at 14,000-14200 yuan/ton, and the Australian cotton SM1-5/32′′ was not quoted at 16200-16300 yuan/ton, SM1. -1/8′′ Australian cotton quotations of 16,000 yuan / ton or less (excluding quotas), the port bonded area lint to US cotton, West Africa cotton, Indian cotton, Australian cotton and a small amount of Central Asia cotton, the higher the level The harder the goods. In addition, since July, some domestic cotton spinning companies have raised their enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement of Brazilian cotton, West Africa cotton and Australian cotton, and have shown a poor performance for SM and M grades of US cotton. The industry expects to reach the end of July around Qingdao Port. , Yantai, etc.) The number of bonded cotton will reach 500,000 tons or more.