IF, IH, IC main contract and stock market rebounded, and will continue to rebound tomorrow
[Fundamental] On the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, the central bank reversed the repurchase operation to “open the gate and release waterâ€. On February 22, the central bank announced that in order to protect the liquidity of the banking system from the impact of the tax period and the deposit of statutory deposit reserves by financial institutions, the central bank today implemented a 350 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation through interest rate bidding. . Specifically, the 160-billion-day 7-day reverse repurchase, 130 billion yuan 28-day reverse repurchase and 60 billion yuan 63-day reverse repurchase, the winning bid rate was flat in the previous period. This week, the public market has no reversal repurchase, and the net delivery of the day was 350 billion yuan. Previously, the central bank has suspended reverse repurchase operations for 16 consecutive trading days. As of February 21, the SSE's financing balance was 587.597 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.731 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 390.177 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.829 billion yuan over the previous trading day; the two cities totaled 977.773 billion yuan. Compared with the previous trading day, it decreased by 13.561 billion yuan.
[Trends forecast] IF, IH and IC main contract and Shanghai Composite Index have plummeted since February, all the way down, but our analysis of the market has been seriously oversold, facing adjustment and repair, the beginning of the new year, the disk opened synchronously and rebounded gradually, gradually getting stronger, Market sentiment is also expected to start to pick up with the spring breeze, the sea is expected to continue to rebound in the stock index and the broader market tomorrow.
The first battle of corn and corn starch will rise as scheduled and will continue to rise tomorrow.
[Fundamental] Hebei starch price, the market mainstream: 2380 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, the chain ratio: -2.06%. Shanxi starch price, the market mainstream: 2340 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, the chain ratio: 0%. Liaoning starch price, the market mainstream: 2300 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, the chain ratio: 0%. Jilin starch price, the market mainstream: 2350 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, the chain ratio: 0%. Heilongjiang starch price, the market mainstream: 2250 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, ring: 0%. Shanghai starch price, the market mainstream: 2600 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, the chain ratio: 0%. Shandong starch price, the market mainstream: 2420 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, the chain ratio: -0.41%. Guangdong starch price, the market mainstream: 2600 yuan / ton, year-on-year: 0%, ring: 0%. (China Corn Network) Washington, February 22 news: US corn spot prices rose on Wednesday. The weather in Argentina is dry and hot, which is not good for the growth of the corn crop. The analysis agency lowered the forecast of corn production in Argentina, which is favorable for the US corn export prospects. In the US Gulf, the spot price of No. 2 yellow corn is US$4.1425 per bushel, which is US$163.1 per ton, which is 2.75 US cents higher than the previous trading day. The basis for the Louisiana Bay is 46 to 51 cents higher than the CBOT March corn price.
[Trend forecast] Corn and corn starch will rise perfectly on the first trading day after the year, and the overall balance will remain strong. The support below is strong and effective. The support under corn and starch is intensive and not easy to fall. The clear analysis of the market before the sea will further increase, especially After the year, the reserve will be warmed up and it will be cashed on schedule. The sea believes that the market has returned to the moving average and will rise further. The operation will continue to be dominated by tomorrow.
Cotton as a whole has moved up, soaring tomorrow
[Fundamental] New York February 21 news, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton rose nearly 2% on Wednesday, the first psychological barrier of 80 cents in the past three weeks, before the first delivery notice date of the March contract, There is speculative demand for near-month contracts. The most active May cotton contract closed higher at 1.43 cents, or 1.81%, at 80.39 cents a pound, with a trading range of 78.57-80.52 cents, the highest since February 1. Rogers Varner, president of Varner Brokerage, said: "After the March contract was settled, speculators are returning to buy the May contract." The first delivery notice for the March contract was on February 22. The total trading volume of the futures market decreased by 2,312 contracts to 50,016 contracts. The data showed that the previous day's contract positions fell by 2,844 contracts to 251,852 contracts. According to China Cotton Information Network, in December 2017, the national cotton industry stocks fell by 39,000 tons to 665,400 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the average of the previous four months. In January, downstream textile companies began to replenish raw material stocks. In January, the national new flower acquisition and processing was basically completed. In addition, the company increased the proportion of new cotton, the national cotton commercial inventory fell for the first time this year, the domestic cotton spot price index thus ended the decline of nearly three months, and then rebounded.
[Trends forecast] Cotton is the first trading day after the Spring Festival. The trend is high and the price is high. It is reported to the Yinxian line again. Although the market is closed, the overall market moves up and the bottom support is effective. The sea believes that the night and tomorrow will be again. Try to rebound, the cotton market will try to pick up, the possibility of continued slump is small, the operation does not recommend chasing the air, it is recommended to do more into the field after the downswing, go higher and timely take profit.
The first day after the Egg Festival, it will rebound smoothly and continue to rise tomorrow.
[Fundamental] On February 9th, the wholesale price of eggs in the new market was 4.83 yuan / kg, which was 11.55% higher than the 4.33 yuan / kg on February 2; it was higher than the 2.45 yuan / kg on February 9, 2017. 97.14%. The week-on-week ratio rose sharply; the month-on-month ratio rose slightly; the year-on-year rate rose sharply. Last weekend, the year-on-year increase was 76.73%, and this year's year-on-year increase was greatly expanded. According to the research report of Xinfadi, the rise in egg prices has the characteristics of “the height is not coldâ€. According to the research report, “Many chicken farms have realized that egg prices will appear “diving†after the Spring Festival. Some chicken farms are accelerating the pace of phasing out old chickens and adjusting the stock of chickens in chicken farms in many ways. Quantity, this may have a certain degree of support for post-holiday egg prices."
[Trends forecast] Eggs opened lower today, and rebounded on the first day after the Spring Festival. There is pressure on the market, there is support under the market, the rebound is struggling, the decline is blocked, and the overall will be dominated by shocks. Today's market rebounds slightly for tomorrow. Foundation, the sea believes that egg rebound will continue. The short-term market continues the bottom oscillating adjustment, and the operation will rely on the moving average to go up tomorrow, and the operation can be arranged for multiple operations.
White sugar does not chase, it will go down
[Fundamental] Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday, the market was consolidating, after falling 11% in January, due to expected global oversupply. May raw sugar futures closed down 0.02 cents, or 0.2%, at 13.27 cents per pound. The price of sugar was near the seven-month low of 13.17 cents hit last month. This morning, the disk closed slightly, the price of processed sugar remained basically unchanged, and some sugar factories were still on holiday. The details are as follows: Liaoning: Yingkou North Sugar Co., Ltd.: Yinxia brand white sugar, white sugar has no offer. Hebei: COFCO (Tangshan) Sugar Co., Ltd.: There is no quotation for the holiday of the Luohe brand Chen sugar factory warehouse board. Shandong: Rizhao Lingyunhai Sugar Group Co., Ltd.: Lingxue brand white sugar price 6700 yuan / ton, cotton white sugar offer 6850 yuan / ton, the price is unchanged, the transaction is general. Shandong Xingguang Sugar Group Co., Ltd.: Xingyou brand refined white sugar (young sugar) offer 7500 yuan / ton, excellent grade white sugar offer 6900 yuan / ton, white sugar offer 6800 yuan / ton, the price is unchanged, the transaction is general.
[Trends forecast] Sugar started to fall sharply and then rebounded. The first day of the trend was unstable, and there was still no effective breakthrough at the bottom. The sugar market continued to run weakly today, the bottom support is still effective, and the downward trend space should not be chased up. The night and tomorrow will rebound and rebound, and the operation will be more cautious and not chasing.
The two fats of the oil and fat will differentiate and will rise as a whole tomorrow.
[Fundamental] On Thursday morning, the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures market closed slightly higher, mainly due to the weakening of the ringgit exchange rate. As of noon, palm oil futures rose by RM4 to RM18, with the benchmark May palm oil futures rising by about RM12 to close at RM2501/ton. The trading range for the morning benchmark period is between RM2,493 and RM2,505. WASHINGTON, Feb. 21: The US soybean spot market rose on Wednesday, mainly due to the hot and dry weather in Argentina, which may lead to a significant reduction in soybean production. Argentine local analysts have lowered their forecasts for Argentina's soybean production to less than 50 million tons. In contrast, the US Department of Agriculture's current forecast is still as high as 54 million tons. In the US Gulf, the average spot price of US No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.6625 US dollars per bushel, which was about 392 US dollars per ton, up 7.75 cents from the previous trading day. The basis for the Louisiana Bay offer is 30 to 35 cents higher than CBOT's March soybean price.
[Trends forecast] The two rhythms of oil and fat are intensifying the rhythm of today's market. During the long holiday period, the two sides suffered from the rise of the outer disk and the high rise and high, the strong rise, the record high, the oil and fats are obviously weak, still looking for the bottom. In the middle, but now the space below this position is limited, easy to rise and fall, the bottom of the rebound is on the verge, the sea is expected to rise at night and tomorrow.
Rubber weakness is difficult to change and will continue to fall tomorrow
[Fundamental] In January 2018, Vietnam exported 136,000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%, down 19.8% from last year (2017). Tokyo February 21 news, TOCOM benchmark rubber futures rose for the third day on Wednesday, continuing to rebound from the eight-month low, as the yen fell. As of 0021 GMT, the TOCOM benchmark July rubber contract rose 1.7 yen to 185.5 yen per kilogram, hitting a high since February 15. The Chinese financial market was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and opened on Thursday. The dollar rose to a six-day high against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, continuing the rebound from the three-year low hit last week, helped by the rise in US bond yields, and some traders reduced their excessive bets on bearish dollars. US crude oil futures hit a two-week high in volatile trading on Tuesday, as Cushing's inventories fell and it is expected that major oil producers may continue to cooperate after 2018. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures lower on Tuesday, affected by the strength of the dollar
[Trends forecast] After the continuous plunge of rubber, the market has recently fallen into a consolidation. After this plunge, it is obvious that the market is adjusted and repaired. The market is once again rushing down, and the weakness is still difficult to change. The sea is expected to be late. And tomorrow's rubber will continue to fall.
Pp, L, pta, bitumen and methanol are divided repeatedly and will continue to fall tomorrow
[Fundamental] On February 13, 2018, according to the CCFEI price index, the PTA internal spot price was 5735 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day +50 yuan / ton, MEG internal disk spot price 7850 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day +25 yuan / Tons; Hengli Petrochemical PTA spot main port cash from the price of 6200 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, the external disk selling price of 810 US dollars / ton, unchanged from the previous day; as of February 13, 2018, PTA factory The load rate was 77.95%, which was +3.78% from the previous day. Crude oil: During the holiday season, the international oil price rose first and then declined. WTI increased by 1.04% or 0.63 US dollars/barrel. The amplitude during the period was 4.91%, closing at 61.34 USD/barrel. The oil oil increased by 0.99% or 0.64 USD/barrel during the period. The amplitude is 4.4% and is closed at $65.08 per barrel. On February 13, 2018, the price of polyester chips was 7,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of polyester staple fiber 1.4D*38MM was 8,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of polyester filament POY150D/48F was 8,700 yuan. / ton, unchanged from the previous day, polyester filament FDY150D/96F offer 9100 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, polyester filament DTY150D / 48F offer 10150 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of February 13, 2018, the downstream polyester plant load rate was 73.94%, unchanged from the previous day.
[Trends forecast] pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol have continued to fall back and down in the near future. Today's market is divided and repeated, and there is a high wash, especially for pta and asphalt. However, the market is generally normal and reversal. After the dishwashing, the sea is expected to continue to fall at night and tomorrow.
Threaded hot-rolled iron ore fell back and will fall back tomorrow
[Fundamental] Vale's iron ore output in the fourth quarter of 2017 was 93.36 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous month, mainly due to the seasonal weather in the southern and southeastern systems; an increase of 1.1% over the same period, mainly due to the northern system. The commissioning of the S11D project compensates for the reduction in low-grade iron ore production in the southeast and south systems. In addition, sales in the fourth quarter were 79.96 million tons, down 3.17 million tons from the third quarter; annual sales were 291 million tons, down 2 million tons from last year. Shinkansen: On February 22, Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. adjusted the prices of building materials in Maanshan and Hefei as follows: High line: 10 yuan/ton, up to Φ8mm HPB300 high line in Hefei area, 4200 yuan/ton, Φ8mm HPB300 in Maanshan area The line execution price is 4180 yuan / ton; thread: up 10 yuan / ton, the current implementation price of Φ20mm HRB400 rebar in Hefei area is 4110 yuan / ton, the implementation price of Φ20mm HRB400 rebar in Maanshan area is 4090 yuan / ton; 10 yuan / ton, the current implementation price of Φ8mm HRB400 snail in Hefei area is 4260 yuan / ton, the implementation price of Φ8mm HRB400 snail in Maanshan area is 4240 yuan / ton. The above adjustments are all tax-included and will be implemented on February 22, 2018.
[Trends forecast] The recent market differentiation of threaded hot coils and iron ore, the strength of the disk alternates back and forth, the overall high level adjustment of the threaded hot coil, gradually weakening, today is a fall and fall, the iron ore recently rebounded and rushed high, today's disk The thorns are explored and repeated back and forth. The sea is expected to repeat the night plate and tomorrow's threaded hot coil and iron ore market, and the overall price will fall back.
Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum will fall back simultaneously and will continue to fall tomorrow
[Fundamental] The US stock market closed lower on Wednesday, reversing the earlier gains. After the US Federal Reserve Board (FED/Federal) released the minutes of the January meeting, the US 10-year bond yield rose to a four-year high. US Treasury yields rose on turbulent trading on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Board (FED/Federal) issued the minutes of the most recent meeting, consolidating expectations that this year's rate hike will increase as economic growth accelerates. LME three-month copper closed up 0.4% to $7,119 per tonne. Shanghai spot copper offer at 52,170-52330 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton, discounted 240 yuan / ton - discounted 200 yuan / ton. There are not many market quotations today. The copper discount is not much changed before the holiday. The price difference between the copper and the flat copper is small. Most of the downstream has not yet started, and the market transactions are quiet. Stewart Glickman, an energy analyst at CFRA Research, said rising US shale oil production should lead to a small increase in inventories. The minutes of the January 30-31 policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that policymakers had increased confidence in the need to continue raising interest rates at the meeting, and most members believed that inflation would rise. Gold rose slightly on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Board (FED/Federal) issued minutes of the meeting, recording the biggest one-day drop in two and a half months. LME three-month aluminum closed up 0.7% at $2,201 per tonne. Shanghai spot aluminum ingots offer at 13690-13730 yuan / ton, down 310 yuan / ton, discount 290 yuan / ton - discount 250 yuan / ton. On the first trading day after the holiday, Shanghai Aluminum fell sharply, and the spot price also fell. Most traders are still in the vacation mode, and the market has no deals.
[Trendment forecast] After the copper-zinc-nickel-aluminum festival continued to fall back and down, it has been divided and repeated, and the rebound has been adjusted slightly. After the holiday, the market has weakened and fell back. The rebound is over, the weak is expected to return, the sea is expected to be night and tomorrow, copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum. It will continue to fall, with empty orders focused on participation.
Gold and silver are under pressure in the Spring Festival and will continue to fall
[Fundamentals] China Securities Journal reported on February 22: The People's Bank of China recently released the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the fourth quarter of 2017, stating that in 2017, the People's Bank of China continued to implement a stable and neutral monetary policy, monetary policy and macroeconomics. The double-pillar regulation framework of prudential policy has achieved initial results, creating a moderately moderate monetary and financial environment for supply-side structural reform and high-quality development. When talking about the main policy ideas of the next stage, the report clearly stated that the monetary policy should be maintained in a stable and neutral manner and the main gate of money supply should be managed. Securities Daily reported on February 22: During the Spring Festival, international gold prices fell back. The gold price in the New York market basically returned to the level around $1,430 per ounce before the holiday. Recently, due to the rebound of the US dollar and the US dollar bond yields hit a new high, gold has experienced a three-day losing streak. On February 21, during the Asian session, spot gold continued to fall, hitting a one-week low of $1324.90 per ounce. The US dollar index rose modestly, putting pressure on gold prices.
[Trends forecast] Gold and silver pressure on the first day of low pressure, the market will be under pressure again, the market will be under pressure again in the near future, unilateral gains are difficult to continue, with shocks falling back, with the rebound in the plate, the sea thinks the Spring Festival During the period, the gold was under pressure, and the night and tomorrow will continue to rebound and then fall back. The operation is mainly based on rebounding empty orders, and paying attention to take profit.
Power coal rose sharply on the first day, and will rise back tomorrow, be cautious
[Fundamental] The thermal coal futures 05 contract reached a high point of 678.8 yuan / ton on January 29, and gradually weakened in February. The sharp decline on February 12 was 6.5% lower than the previous high point. Volume, position The volume has dropped significantly. The reason is that, in February, the low temperature is returning to normal temperature in the past year, and the market needs to correct the excessive price increase caused by the low temperature in the previous period. Second, the Spring Festival holiday, the company stops production and cuts production, and the staff returns to their hometown. The spot trading market tends to be deserted, and the spot price continues to rise into the callback period. Third, the state implements multiple control policies in coal production and transportation, such as the highest price limit, the release of high-quality capacity, and the continuous production of coal enterprises and the reduction of spot. Prices, etc., the role of the top of the policy on the rebound of the spot price continues to highlight. The above factors have affected the expectations of the futures market, causing it to go lower than the spot market, and due to the cumulative effect of the above negative factors, the 12th has created the biggest single-day decline since 2018.
[Trends forecast] Power coal is rising sharply today. The first day of the holiday, the market volatility is an example. The trend is strong. Before the holiday, the sea is perfectly grasped by the power coal. Today, the market is once again pushing up. The sea thinks that the trend is not long-lasting. Once again, the pressure is obvious. The sea believes that the night market and tomorrow's market will not rule out that there will be a drop in the tide, ushered in a round of decline, and the operation can rebound high.
The top of the glass oscillates and will rise again
[Fundamental] On February 22, China's glass composite index was 1184.83 points, up 0.56 points from the previous month; China's glass price index was 1210.77 points, up 0.52 points from the previous month; China's glass confidence index was 1081.05 points, up 0.72 points from the previous month. Since the Spring Festival, the glass spot market has been basically stagnant, and the production enterprises are mainly based on safe production. In the past two days, with the gradual recovery of short-distance transportation, local traders have produced a small amount of production enterprises. The glass deep processing enterprises began to gradually resume work. It is understood that the current orders of deep processing enterprises have remained at around one month. Overall, the glass spot market has not fully recovered.
[Trends forecast] Glass is falling and diving today. The top pressure is very strong, but the trend is still in the high range. It is not easy to penetrate the support. The sea believes that the market will continue to maintain high momentum and the first battle will fall after the Spring Festival. However, the sea does not think that it can be used as a basis for the decline. The market will also fluctuate at the top. Try again before the impact. The next day, the operation cannot be pursued. The following are mainly short-term, and the market breaks through the jiacang.
Coking coal coke is repeated at high levels and will fall back tomorrow
[Fundamental] Coke production in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 12.62 million tons from the same period of the previous year. In the fourth quarter of last year, the country's coke output was 1,043,460 tons, a decrease of 12.407 million tons from the same period of the previous year. This indicates that the year-on-year decline in coke production in the fourth quarter of last year was mainly affected by the “Program†and the implementation of CDQ equipment construction in Jiangsu. If the impact of coke production in the first quarter of this year is the same as that of the fourth quarter of last year, the total output will be 24.814 million tons in two quarters. On the other hand, the national pig iron production in the fourth quarter of last year totaled 196.921 million tons, a decrease of 3.836 million tons from the same period of the previous year. Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan and other places totaled 71,266,600 tons, a decrease of 8,858,800 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. The decline in pig iron production in the areas affected by the “Program†is higher than the decline in the total amount of pig iron in the country, while the growth in other regions is obviously to make up the gap in pig iron supply. If the production of pig iron in the first quarter of this year is the same as that in the fourth quarter of last year, considering that the heating season is 1.5 months in the fourth quarter of last year and 2.5 months in the first quarter of this year, it is estimated that the production of pig iron in the heating season will decrease by 1022.9 compared with the same period of the previous year. Ten thousand tons. The coke ratio of the furnace is estimated at 500kg/ton, and the demand for coke in the heating season is down by 1.0145 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year. The decline in coke demand is less than the supply decline, with a gap of 1969.95 million tons. It can be seen that the supply of coke in the market before the end of the heating season is characterized by partial excess and overall tightness.
[Trends forecast] After the coking coal coke festival turned strong, it began to fluctuate repeatedly, and entered the high position adjustment. The overall position remained strong. Today, the disk is still the same. After the decline, the strength will rise again and again, and the sea is expected to be night and tomorrow. The coke will also fall back and continue.
(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)
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